Cambodia's Tainted Election

Updated August 1, 2013, 6:10 p.m. ET
The Wall Street Journal

Despite evidence of fraud, the opposition should fight inside the National Assembly.

The evidence that fraud may have changed the result of Cambodia's election last Sunday continues to accumulate. The opposition, independent election monitoring groups and foreign governments including the U.S. have all called for an investigation. So far the ruling Cambodian People's Party is minimizing the problems and saying it may agree to an investigation, but not an independent one.
According to the still unofficial tally from the National Election Commission, the CPP retained a majority of 68 seats in the 123-seat National Assembly. But the opposition Cambodian National Rescue Party claims it should have won 63 seats. According to the NEC, the difference between the two parties' vote tallies is a mere 200,000 out of 5.2 million votes cast.
The number of suspect ballots is far greater than the margin of supposed victory. In many documented cases, the same name was registered multiple times, often in different areas, so that in some places the voter rolls were double the number of residents. Local governments issued about half a million temporary identification documents that may have been used to vote under these names. When the real people showed up, they were unable to cast a ballot because someone had already voted in their name.

European Pressphoto Agency

A Cambodian voter casts her ballot at a polling station in a pagoda in Phnom Penh.

Human Rights Watch Executive Director for Asia Brad Adams said, "The multiple voting scheme suggests the possibility of systematic election fraud by the CPP and raises serious questions about the credibility of the election." In past Cambodian elections many of the problems could be chalked up to the incompetence of local officials, but the number of irregularities in this poll is dramatically higher, raising concerns about an organized fraud.
The National Election Commission is nominally independent, but in reality it is controlled by the CPP. So far it has refused to release data on voter registration, putting the onus of proof on the opposition. That has undermined Cambodians' faith in the electoral system. The CNRP and other groups have publicized individual incidents of fraud, which has led to demonstrations and even riots.
The opposition now faces a difficult choice. It could boycott the National Assembly and delay the formation of a new government, which would lead to another stand-off like that seen in 2003. But this would be a strategic mistake. Violence in some form would likely result, and Prime Minister Hun Sen is a skilled street fighter. While his international reputation would suffer, he could use the chaos as a pretext to force opposition leaders like Sam Rainy back into exile.
The political tide in Cambodia is turning, and the opposition must first consolidate its gains to create a true two-party system. Though most Cambodians were too fearful to publicly display their support for the CNRP—even in the capital Phnom Penh the CPP's posters and stickers were everywhere—they managed to give the opposition a majority of seats in urban areas. Clearly they hoped the opposition would check CPP power and hold corrupt officials accountable. Opposition leaders can do that and push for investigations and reforms to the electoral system only if they take their seats in the National Assembly.